Modeling the spatial distribution of a tropical dry forest tree facing climate change

Species distribution models have become an essential tool for the selection of conservation areas. Given this perspective, research aimed to analyze dynamics fundamental niche Ziziphus joazeiro Mart. facing climate change. The MaxEnt algorithm was used correlate species points occurrence with bioclimatic variables four periods: Middle Holocene, current period, and optimistic pessimistic future scenarios HadGEM2-ES model general atmospheric circulation. accuracy predictions influence evaluated using area under curve (AUC index) Jackknife test. showed high precision > 0.895), related precipitation were ones that most contributed determining potential areas species. A reduction more than 60% observed in climatic suitability Z. joazeiro, over time. range comprises central region stands out as greatest suitability, projected being should receive attention programs